Industry News Technical Documents Qualification Manuals Operating Manuals

Home

Industry Information

Technical Articles

National Seamless Steel Pipe Prices May See Moderate Weakening Adjustments in January

2026-01-04

6455

Seamless Steel Pipe Market Review & Outlook: December 2025-January 2026

Overview

In December, the market entered the traditional off-season, with seamless steel pipe prices continuing a moderate downward trend. From a fundamental perspective, supply shifted from growth to decline while demand continued to weaken, resulting in underwhelming market transactions. Manufacturers' profit margins contracted, putting pipe mills in a challenging operational position. Overall, December witnessed a pattern of both weak supply and demand, leading to a generally soft price trend. Looking ahead to January 2026, this report summarizes the December fundamentals and provides a price forecast for the coming month.

I. Price and Profit Performance

(1) Moderate Price Weakening in December

According to Mysteel data, as of December 31, the average price of domestic seamless steel pipes (Grade 20#, Φ108×4.5mm, referred to hereinafter unless specified otherwise) stood at CNY 4,215/ton, a decrease of CNY 16/ton (-0.38%) compared to the end of November. As the off-season deepened, market transaction volumes declined, prompting merchants to adopt a "price-for-volume" strategy.

(2) Poor Theoretical Profit Performance of Pipe Mills in December

As of December 31, taking Grade 20# hot-rolled billet and Φ108×4.5mm seamless steel pipes as examples, the average theoretical profit of sample pipe mills in Shandong was -CNY 100/ton, a sequential contraction of CNY 20/ton. December saw a dual weakness in supply and demand. Some pipe mills took the initiative to reduce production, which alleviated supply pressure to some extent. However, sluggish market demand and low willingness among traders to restock led to insufficient overall market activity. To stimulate orders, multiple pipe mills introduced targeted order incentives and subsidy policies. Nevertheless, persistently high costs and weak end-user demand prevented any improvement in profit margins, leaving manufacturers under significant operational pressure.

Data Source: Mysteel Data

On December 31, the price of steel billets in Shandong was CNY 3,250/ton, a monthly increase of CNY 20/ton (+0.62%). In December, concentrated maintenance by steel mills eased supply pressure, while frequent news about environmental production restrictions in northern China caused billet prices to fluctuate before showing moderate strength.

II. Supply Situation

Significant Supply Decline in December

Many manufacturers conducted regular maintenance in December, leading to a notable drop in production levels. According to Mysteel's survey covering 32 manufacturers with 110 production lines, output in the final week of December reached 333,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,600 tons and a monthly decrease of 53,100 tons. Capacity utilization rate stood at 66.84%, down 3.93 percentage points week-on-week and 10.65 percentage points month-on-month. Over the next two months before the Spring Festival, more pipe mills are expected to enter maintenance, suggesting that the downward trend in supply will continue, with overall output remaining at a low level.

Data Source: Mysteel Data

III. Demand Situation

Seasonal Downturn in Transactions in December

According to transaction data from 123 sample seamless steel pipe trading enterprises surveyed by Mysteel's Steel Pipe Research Team, the average daily transaction volume in December was 13,021 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons (-12.73%) compared to November. Market transactions showed a seasonal decline, consistent with the characteristics of the traditional off-season. Regionally, the transaction volume drop was significantly more pronounced in northern markets than in southern ones.

IV. Import and Export Performance

(1) Sequential Decline in Both Exports and Imports in November

From January to November 2025, China's cumulative exports of seamless steel pipes reached 5.6102 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.55%. In November alone, exports stood at 528,500 tons, a sequential decrease of 8.58% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.54%.

Data Source: Mysteel Data

From January to November 2025, China's cumulative imports of seamless steel pipes totaled 91,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.50%. In November 2025, imports were 7,700 tons, a sequential decrease of 9.18% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.55%.

(2) Rising Import and Export Prices in November

In November, moderate increases in raw material prices led to a slight uptick in export quotations for seamless steel pipes. The average export price in November was CNY 8,655.90/ton, a monthly increase of 10.64% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.02%. The average import price was CNY 43,352.23/ton, a marginal monthly increase of 0.12% but a significant year-on-year decrease of 54.68%. For the January-November period, the average export price was CNY 8,557.51/ton (-5.01% YoY), while the average import price was CNY 54,920.25/ton (-22.78% YoY).

Table 1: Average Import and Export Prices of Seamless Steel Pipes (Unit: CNY/ton)

Date	Average Export Price	Average Import Price
November 2025	8,655.90	43,352.23
MoM Change	+10.64%	+0.12%
YoY Change	-1.02%	-54.68%
January-November 2025	8,557.51	54,920.25
YoY Change	-5.01%	-22.78%

Data Source: Mysteel Data

V. Market Outlook for January 2026

December's seamless steel pipe market was characterized by: (1) continued price and profit declines; (2) significant drops in supply and inventories; and (3) weakening demand, along with sequential export decline despite remaining resilience.

Looking ahead to January:

Macro Perspective: The market is in a policy vacuum with no major positive news expected in the short term.
Supply Side: According to Mysteel's survey, concentrated maintenance and production suspensions among manufacturers are likely in January-February, leading to further supply reduction with no significant pressure on mill inventories.
Demand Side: Market transactions will weaken further in January. Traders have shown low enthusiasm for winter stockpiling this year, with most maintaining minimal inventories. Winter stockpiled resources will gradually arrive starting January, potentially causing social inventories to shift from decline to passive increase.

Conclusion: With the macroeconomic environment entering a policy vacuum, both supply and demand are expected to decline rapidly in January. Meanwhile, the market may gradually enter an inventory accumulation cycle. Therefore, seamless steel pipe prices are projected to experience moderate weakening adjustments in January.

Previous Article：In November, China's imports of stainless steel products amounted to 112,100 tons, a decrease of 18,100 tons compared to the previous year. Next Article：Classification of Titanium Materials