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China Seamless Steel Pipe Prices to Move in Narrow Range in June

2026-06-08

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Overview

China’s seamless steel pipe market trended slightly upward with limited price fluctuations in May. On the supply side, overall market supply remained stable. Pipe mills operated at a moderately high utilization rate, and factory inventories posted a mild increase.

Market demand stayed sluggish. Affected by high temperatures and frequent rainfall, downstream purchasing activity was weak throughout the month, and transactions slowed notably at the end of May.

The average daily trading volume dropped by 3.11% month-on-month. Commercial inventories maintained at a high level, and traders held a wait-and-see attitude with cautious sentiment.

Looking ahead to June, the market will enter the traditional off-season, which may lead to further weakening in demand. Nevertheless, price support from production costs will remain intact. It is expected that domestic seamless steel pipe prices will fluctuate within a narrow range.

1. Price and Profit Performance

1.1 Seamless pipe prices edged up moderately in May

According to Mysteel statistics, as of May 30, the average domestic price of 20# seamless steel pipe (specification: 108*4.5mm, the standard specification hereinafter unless otherwise specified) stood at RMB 4,327 per ton, up RMB 61 per ton or 1.43% from late April.

Driven by solid cost support despite tepid demand, seamless pipe prices moved sideways with mild gains in May. By region, prices remained firm in East China and North China, while those in South China and Southwest China slipped slightly.

By product type, hot-rolled seamless pipes outperformed cold-drawn pipes, and large-diameter products saw relatively resilient prices.

1.2 Theoretical profits of most pipe mills rose modestly in May

As of May 30, taking 20# hot-rolled seamless pipe (Φ108*4.5mm) as the benchmark:

The theoretical profit of sampled pipe mills in Shandong was RMB 90 per ton, rising RMB 30 per ton month-on-month.
The theoretical profit of sampled pipe mills in Jiangsu was RMB 80 per ton, falling RMB 60 per ton month-on-month.
The theoretical profit of long-process blast furnace pipe mills reached RMB 69 per ton, an increase of RMB 33 per ton month-on-month.

Pipe billet prices fluctuated during the month, while seamless pipe prices registered a slight increase, resulting in diverging profit levels across manufacturers.

2. Pipe Billet Prices

Pipe billet prices fluctuated in May. As of May 30, the pipe billet price in Jiangsu was RMB 3,640 per ton, up RMB 60 per ton from late April; the price in Shandong was RMB 3,440 per ton, up RMB 10 per ton month-on-month. The price gap between northern and southern China widened to RMB 200 per ton, an expansion of RMB 50 per ton compared with the previous month.

Volatile prices of iron ore, coke and other raw materials led to changes in cost support for pipe billets during the period.

3. Supply Situation

Output of seamless pipe mills declined month-on-month

Based on Mysteel surveys covering 30 domestic seamless pipe manufacturers with 101 production lines:

The average weekly output in May was 411,100 tons, up 7,700 tons week-on-week but down 8,300 tons month-on-month. The capacity utilization rate was 82.45%, rising 1.54 percentage points week-on-week and falling 1.66 percentage points month-on-month. The operating rate stood at 77.23%, flat week-on-week and down 1.98 percentage points month-on-month.

A number of pipe mills carried out equipment maintenance, coupled with high inventory pressure, which caused a slight decline in supply. Overall market supply still stayed at a relatively high level.

4. Demand Situation

4.1 Trading volume decreased slightly month-on-month

Survey data of 123 seamless pipe traders showed that the average daily trading volume in the fourth week of May was 14,833 tons, down 0.23% week-on-week. The average daily trading volume for the whole month was 15,685 tons, a month-on-month drop of 1.35%.

Trading volumes declined across Northwest, Central, East, North and Northeast China, with Northwest China posting the largest drop. As the market entered the traditional consumption off-season and affected by high temperature and rainy weather, downstream purchasing slowed down in May. It is predicted that trading activity will continue to weaken in the follow-up period.

4.2 Seamless pipe exports rose 0.57% year-on-year in April

According to customs data:

China exported 496,900 tons of seamless steel pipes in April 2026, up 8.66% month-on-month and 0.57% year-on-year. Imports reached 9,400 tons, increasing 13.25% month-on-month and 34.29% year-on-year. Net exports stood at 487,500 tons, up 8.57% month-on-month and 0.08% year-on-year.

From January to April 2026, cumulative exports of seamless steel pipes totaled 1.9476 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.01%. Cumulative imports were 31,600 tons, up 2.27% year-on-year. Cumulative net exports hit 1.916 million tons, rising 2.01% year-on-year.

5. Market Outlook for June

5.1 Positive factors

Off-season demand: June is the traditional off-season, and downstream demand is likely to weaken further.
Capital pressure: Tight capital flow at mid-year will dampen traders’ willingness to restock goods.
Macroeconomic uncertainties: The momentum of economic recovery remains to be seen, resulting in weak market confidence.
Fierce market competition: High inventory pressure will intensify competition among pipe manufacturers.

5.3 Price Forecast

Overall, China’s seamless steel pipe market is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in June.

On the supply side, market supply will keep declining moderately. The overall operating rate of pipe mills may drop below 75%, cutting total output by about 20,000 to 30,000 tons.

On the demand side, demand will continue to shrink amid the traditional off-season. The average daily trading volume is projected to fall to 14,000 – 14,500 tons, down 5% to 8% month-on-month.

On the inventory side, total inventories will stay stable with a slight decline. Factory inventories will continue to be digested, while commercial inventories will see minor fluctuations.

On the cost side, pipe billet prices are expected to remain firm and provide solid support for seamless pipe prices.

It is estimated that the national seamless pipe price index will move within the range of RMB 4,300 – 4,500 per ton in June, with a high possibility of an increase of RMB 50 – 100 per ton compared with late May.

Market participants are advised to keep a close eye on production maintenance plans of pipe mills and changes in downstream demand, and arrange inventory and purchasing schedules reasonably.

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